Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after enduring calls for his resignation for several weeks, finally gave in to those wishes in early January when he announced he would step down once the Liberal Party picks a new leader to succeed him.
In the meantime, Parliament has been suspended until March 24, giving the Liberals time to pick the country’s next leader. That individual will take over until the national election, which must occur by Oct. 25.
OntarioBets.com, which has a Canadian election betting guide, developed exclusive odds projecting who would be his replacement until an official Prime Minister is elected.
Candidate | Odds | Percent Chance |
Chrystia Freeland (Former Deputy PM) | -150 | 40.0% |
Mark Carney (Former Central Banker) | +200 | 33.3% |
Francois-Philippe Champagne (Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry) | +1400 | 6.7% |
The Field | +400 | 20% |
Unlike the United States, where sportsbooks are not allowed to offer odds on political events, betting on elections is very much legal in Canada. Check with your favorite Ontario sports betting operator to see if they offer such markets. Also, don’t forget to check out our reviews and sign up with sportsbooks approved to operate in the province.
Trudeau, who turned 53 on Christmas, is currently the seventh-longest serving Prime Minister in Canada’s history. His father, Pierre Trudeau, was the third-longest tenured leader, having been Prime Minister for nearly 15-1/2 years over two terms.
For now, it seems the race to replace Trudeau is between Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney.
Freeland was a renowned journalist before becoming a member of Parliament and eventually a member of Trudeau’s cabinet. She resigned as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance last month in a disagreement with Trudeau over several issues, including potential tariffs from the United States.
Carney is a banker who has led both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England as well as the international Financial Stability Board. An influential party leader, he currently heads its economic task force on growth.
One thing Carney isn’t though, is a member of Parliament. Technically, it’s not a requirement, and should Carney become the Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister, he would likely run for a seat in the upcoming federal election.
Once the new Liberal leader is picked and Parliament resumes, the House of Commons is expected to hold a vote of confidence. Should the Liberals, who only hold 153 of the 338 seats, lose that vote, it would likely trigger a call for the federal election to take place well before October.
Whoever is appointed over the next two months has a tough task ahead. Not only will the new Prime Minister be leading a minority government in Ottawa, but the party needs to overcome a large lead held by the Conservative Party for the upcoming federal elections.
Polling from CBC shows Conservatives holding a better than 2-to-1 advantage over Liberals (44.2% to 20.1%). The potential exists for the Liberal Party to become the third party in the House of Commons as the New Democrats are slightly behind at 19.3%.
Based on the network’s polling, Conservatives are easily expected to win a significant majority of seats in the next Parliament. CBC expects Conservatives to win more than 200. That gives them a 98% chance of winning a majority in the next federal election.
If that happens, then Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre would become Prime Minister.
Stay with OntarioBets.com for more election coverage plus reviews of Ontario casino apps so you can do comparison shopping throughout the year.
Author
Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters. He shares his expertise on OntarioBets, among other sites.
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