It is late winter in Canada, but life is sunny for Toronto Blue Jays fans.
Since Major League Baseball spring training began late last month, Canada’s team has an impressive 11-6 record going into the games on March 13, putting them atop the standings in the Florida Grapefruit League. And the resurgent form of Jays’ ace Kevin Gausman in Dunedin hints at better days ahead.
OntarioBets.com dove into the analytics to see what they tell us about Kevin Gausman’s performance across the entirety of a baseball season – revealing trends that might be useful for customers at Ontario sportsbooks. Using BaseballReference.com, we created the following chart to see which month of the year Gausman puts in his best work. The stats below represent his average month-by-month numbers from the three full seasons (2022-24) he has been a Blue Jay.
Month | Win % | Innings | ERA | SO/9 | BA |
March/April | .417 | 90.4 | 3.01 | 10.4 | 0.257 |
May | .722 | 91.4 | 3.47 | 10.5 | 0.253 |
June | .461 | 97.3 | 4.19 | 10.2 | 0.263 |
July | .528 | 68.4 | 4.02 | 11.1 | 0.261 |
August | .583 | 100.5 | 3.27 | 9.1 | 0.246 |
Sept./Oct. | .667 | 87.3 | 2.96 | 9.2 | 0.222 |
The big headlines have been focused on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract extension – the slugger is reportedly seeking a deal worth half a billion dollars – so Gausman is a storyline that has flown under the radar from the Sunshine State. But a healthy Gausman gives Toronto Blue Jays playoff odds for 2025 a boost.
In his two appearances so far, Gausman struck out six batters in four innings on the mound. But for Jays fans, the more encouraging sign is an early indication that Gaus has re-found his fastball. The pitcher’s signature four-seamer has been both fast, clocking in at upwards of 96 mph, and it has bene accurate.
After early-season shoulder issues in 2024 put a damper on the follow-up to his dominant 2023 campaign (in which Gausman finished third in Cy Young voting), these early signs are music to the ears of Jays hopefuls. At NorthStar Bets Ontario Sportsbook, the Kevin Gausman Cy Young odds for 2025 are at +3500 as of March 13.
But before we get too excited by spring training hype – the beginning of the MLB regular season is still two weeks away, after all – we wanted to know more about Gausman’s performance across the entirety of a baseball season. We turned to baseball-reference.com data to see which month has been the strongest for Gausman in the past three years.
But determining that depends upon the metrics used. Based on win percentage alone, May would be considered Gausman’s best month. However, if you factor in opponent batting average and ERA, the case could be made that September/October are superior, which is when baseball wagering at Ontario sports betting apps hits a crescendo.
In another sense, August may be Gaus’ most valuable stretch, since he has tended to pitch the greatest number of innings (100.5) during that month. He has also maintained a respectable .583 winning percentage and .246 opponent batting average in August.
However, the overall trends tell a story that Blue Jays fans will be happy to hear. While Gausman seems to struggle mid-season at this stage in his career, with an ERA above 4.00 in both June and July, the Jays’ top pitcher starts and finishes the season strong. In fact, he seems to play his best ball late in the year – a mouth-watering prospect for Toronto fans eyeing a postseason berth. Toronto has +200 odds to make the playoffs at Sports Interaction Ontario Sportsbook, compared to -250 odds that they’ll miss out for the second year in a row.
USA Today photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck
Author
Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for OntarioBets.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.
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