From his start as a highly touted international prospect to 3 straight All-Star Games, a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and runner-up finish for AL MVP, Vladimir Guerrero Jr is one of the brightest young stars in baseball. Can he follow in the footsteps of his Hall-of-Fame father, who won AL MVP in 2004? Let's take a look at his chances to bring home MLB's most prestigious regular season award.
Coming off multiple playoff runs in the past few seasons, one of the biggest factors for Vlad to come out on top in MVP voting will be how well the Blue Jays do this year. Though they've flamed out of the playoffs more than once, it's important to remember that the MVP awards are for the regular season only...so another run to the postseason would boost Guerrero's MVP odds immensely. A quick look at MLB futures shows the Jays are favored to be playing games that matter in October.
Reports are that he's gotten into the best shape of his career this offseason, and he seems ready to take on the mantle of leadership on a supremely talented Blue Jays team. If he can up his power numbers and walk a bit more, Vlad has a real chance of winning.
Coming off his 48-homer season in 2021, Guerrero almost won his first AL MVP award, finishing behind only Shohei Ohtani in voting for the Junior Circuit. Well, Sho-time's free agent signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League removes a major obstacle for Guerrero (and others) to win MVP honors in the AL. (MLB still awards separate awards for NL MVP and AL MVP, and has since 1931.)
Clearly, the Blue Jays star will still need to beat out established superstars like three-time winner Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez and Jose Altuve. But recent winners like Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman and the aforementioned two-way star Shohei Ohtani will all be battling it out for NL MVP. While rising talents like Bobby Witt Jr, Rafael Devers, Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson and even teammate Bo Bichette pose a threat to his chances, they're still long shots compared to the two players with the best AL MVP odds, New York Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, here is where Guerrero stands in his odds to win the AL MVP against the current favorites:
While he did make the All-Star Game (and even win the HR Derby), Vlad did post his worst statistical season since his 2019 rookie campaign. With 26 homers and 94 RBI, most players would take his stats in a heartbeat, but to win American League MVP, he'll need to get back to elite power and on-base numbers. As a point of reference, his slugging percentage was a league-leading .601 (with 48 homers) in 2021, but only .444 last season.
As of spring training, the current odds for Vlad to win AL MVP are around +2000 to +2200, depending on what sportsbook you check. Clearly, the odds will move after opening day, but bettors can expect to get about 20-1 odds on a bet right now. Vlad is not a frontrunner for the hardware at the moment, but a big start to the year could prompt a major shift in his odds.
An MVP would likely make the fun-loving Guerrero one of the main faces of baseball, and put the Blue Jays back into the mainstream conversation. He has all the ingredients for a fan favorite, and an MVP win would send his already huge popularity into the stratosphere.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr is the son of Vladimir Guerrero Sr, a 2018 Hall of Fame inductee and 2004 AL MVP
He is the nephew of Wilton Guerrero, a longtime MLB player
He was born in Canada and is a Canadian citizen
He won All-Star Game MVP in 2021, the youngest player to do so
He appears on the cover of MLB The Show 24
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr starts the season as bit of a dark horse candidate to win AL MVP, he's got the talent and track record to make him an intriguing contender. He's on a very good team, he's put up MVP-worthy numbers before and he's coming into this season with a winning attitude an improved physique. If Vlad get on track early in the year, watch out for not just his odds to go up, but his team to climb up the standings.
Author
Tom Ober is a professional writer living in New Hampshire. An avid Boston sports fan, he's rooted with his heart (and wallet) for the local teams for many years. When he's not stationed in front of a game on the TV, he's probably playing Gin Rummy or a video game that's roughly 30-40 years old.
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