From his start as a highly touted international prospect to 3 straight All-Star Games, a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and runner-up finish for AL MVP, Vladimir Guerrero Jr is one of the brightest young stars in baseball. Can he follow in the footsteps of his Hall-of-Fame father, who won AL MVP in 2004? Let's take a look at his chances to bring home MLB's most prestigious regular season award.
Coming off multiple playoff runs in the past few seasons, one of the biggest factors for Vlad to come out on top in MVP voting will be how well the Blue Jays do this year. Though they've flamed out of the playoffs more than once, it's important to remember that the MVP awards are for the regular season only, so another run to the postseason would boost Guerrero's MVP odds immensely. A quick look at MLB futures shows the Jays are favored to be playing games that matter in October.
Guerrero is ready for the start of the 2025 season, and the rumors are that the Toronto Blue Jays are about to sign him to a massive extension after he hit .320 with 30 home runs and 109 RBIs while scoring 98 runs, coming close to matching his 2021 numbers.
Coming off his 48-homer season in 2021, Guerrero almost won his first AL MVP award, finishing behind only Shohei Ohtani in voting for the Junior Circuit. Well, Sho-time's free agent signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League removes a major obstacle for Guerrero (and others) to win MVP honors in the AL. (MLB still awards separate awards for NL MVP and AL MVP and has done so since 1931.)
Clearly, the Blue Jays star will still need to beat out established superstars like three-time winner Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, and last year's winner Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP Award.
Over in the National League, defending MVP winner Shohei Ohtani will attempt to repeat as he looks to fend off Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and even teammate Mookie Betts.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, here is where Guerrero stands in his odds to win the AL MVP against the current favorites:
After a 2023 season that saw him hit 26 homers and 94 RBIs, Guerrero had a great bounce-back season, hitting .323 with 30 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 98 runs while accumulating 199 total hits. It was the best season he has had since 2021, as he looks to sign a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays and bring them back to respectability.
As of spring training, the current odds for Vlad to win AL MVP are around +1700 to +2200, depending on what sportsbook you check. Clearly, the odds will move after opening day, but bettors can expect to get about 20-1 odds on a bet right now. Vlad is not a front-runner for the hardware at the moment, but a big start to the year could prompt a major shift in his odds.
An MVP would likely make the fun-loving Guerrero one of the main faces of baseball, and put the Blue Jays back into the mainstream conversation. He has all the ingredients for a fan favorite, and an MVP win would send his already huge popularity into the stratosphere.
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr starts the season as a bit of a dark-horse candidate to win AL MVP, he's got the talent and track record to make him an intriguing contender. He's on an average team, he's put up MVP-worthy numbers before, and he's coming into this season with a winning attitude and an improved physique. If Vlad gets on track early in the year, watch out for not just his odds to go up, but his team to climb up the standings.
Author
Tom Ober is a professional writer living in New Hampshire. An avid Boston sports fan, he's rooted with his heart (and wallet) for the local teams for many years. When he's not stationed in front of a game on the TV, he's probably playing Gin Rummy or a video game that's roughly 30-40 years old.
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