Author
Christopher Boan is a writer at OntarioBets.com. He's covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Win Total: Trends of 10.5 Win Total Teams
One of the most successful five-year stretches in Buffalo Bills history has been missing one thing: A Super Bowl berth. Coach Sean McDermott and his staff are hoping that 2024 is the year, as are many people north of the border who use Ontario sportsbook apps and cheer for the Bills.
McDermottās tenure in Buffalo has seen a .640-win percentage (73-41) and six playoff appearances in seven seasons. But the Bills have gotten knocked out in the AFC Divisional Round in each of the last three years, with an AFC Championship Round defeat in 2020 being the high-water mark.
OntarioBets.com used the DraftKings Ontario Sportsbook current win total for the 2024 NFL season and found that the Bills over/under is set at 10.5 wins (+130 over). We checked SportsReference.com for all teams with a 10.5-win total line in the last 10 NFL seasons and how they performed.
Season Performance Of 10.5 Win Total NFL Teams
Situation | Number of Teams | Percentage* |
Under 10.5 Wins | 19 of 35 | 54.3% |
Over 10.5 Wins | 16 of 35 | 45.7% |
Make NFL Playoffs | 22 of 35 | 62.9% |
Make Divisional Round | 19 of 35 | 54.3% |
Make Conference Championship | 12 of 35 | 34.3% |
Make Super Bowl | 6 of 35 | 17.1% |
Win Super Bowl | 5 of 35 | 14.3% |
*Rounded to nearest whole number
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How Teams Fared With 10.5 Win Lines
We found 35 teams that started the season with a win total over/under of 10.5 since 2013. Of those, 19 (or 54.3%) won 11 or more games that to cash the over tickets. And 22 of those clubs (62.9%) made the postseason, including five who won the Super Bowl at the end of the season.
Those five teams were the New England Patriots of 2014 and 2016, the 2019 and 2022 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2021 Los Angeles Rams.
The Chiefs have been the primary stumbling block for the Bills and their Ontario sports betting backers in recent years. Kansas City knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs in the 2020, 2021 and 2023 playoffs.
Six teams in total (or 17.1%) have reached the Super Bowl in a season where they had a win total over/under of 10.5, while 12 (or 34.3%) made it to the NFL Conference Championship round.
2024 Buffalo Bills Season Prospects
For the Bills, a return to the Super Bowl, which they lost four straight between 1990 and 1993, would be sweet salvation. Caesars Ontario Sportsbook has +1600 odds on the Bills to claim the Vince Lombardi Trophy at last.
To get there, McDermott and company will have to hold the line all year long, beginning with Buffaloās Week 1 showdown Swept. 8 at home against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals.
USA Today photo by Gregory Fisher
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