The first-round battle for NHL supremacy in Canada’s largest province has brought Ontario sports betting interest to a fever pitch. The Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Ottawa Senators 6-2 on Sunday to open the best-of-seven series between the rivals.
What are the odds on Ottawa rallying to win the series?
Using ChampsorChumps.US, OntarioBets.com found the data and trends of how NHL playoff series go after Game 1. The data includes all best-of-seven series in NHL history, dating back to the 1939 season.
Won Series After Game 1 Loss | 29.8% |
Won Series After Game 1 Loss On Road | 36.7% |
Won Series After Winning Game 2 (After G1 Loss) | 50.7% |
Won Series After Losing Game 2 (After G1 Loss) | 11.8% |
The Ottawa Senators playoff odds will swing greatly depending on the result of Game 2 in the series, which is Tuesday night (7:30 p.m. Eastern) in Toronto.
Less than three times out of 10 – a 29.8% clip, to be exact – teams losing Game 1 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win the series.
Of course, this is Ottawa’s first playoff berth since 2017 so that’s the most recent data we have for the Senators. But there is precedent for the Sens from that year. In the first round of the playoffs eight years ago, the Sens lost Game 1 to the Boston Bruins in the first round but won Game 2 and took the series in six games. Our Ottawa Senators betting guide tells you more about wagering on the team in the nation’s capital.
Later that spring, the Pittsburgh Penguins turned the tables on the Senators, taking the East final in six games after Ottawa won the first game.
In 16 previous seasons making the playoffs, the Senators have advanced out of the first round seven times. In 2003, Ottawa lost Game 1 to the New York Islanders but won 3-0 in Game 2 and went on to eliminate the Isles in five games.
This is the first “Battle of Ontario” in the playoffs since 2004. Bad news for Sens fans: Toronto is 4-0 in postseason series against Ottawa. Ontario sportsbook apps have the Leafs as the favorite in this series too. But all of those previous meetings happened between 2000 and 2004 so none of the current players were involved.
According to the research from the Champs or Chumps website, teams that win Game 2 after losing the opener have about an even chance to win the series, having done so 50.7% of the time. But if the team leading the series 1-0 also wins Game 2, the odds for hockey betting in Ontario fall drastically, with teams making up a 2-0 series deficit just 11.8% of the time in a seven-game series since 1939.
The Senators had their share of opportunities in Game 1. They outshot the Leafs 33-24 and had 56 hits compared to 30 for Toronto. But the Leafs won 56.1% of the faceoffs including 59% at even strength. That led to too many dangerous chances for the Leafs despite their low shot total.
Ottawa showed a willingness to get physical with Toronto. Perhaps a little too much, because the Leafs had six power-play opportunities and scored on two. Staying out of the penalty box and winning more faceoffs will be crucial for the Senators if they want to improve their odds of winning the series, never mind their Stanley Cup odds.
USA Today photo by John E. Sokolowski
Author
Jim Tomlin is an editor and writer specializing in sports, gambling and the intersection of those industries. He has 30+ years of journalism experience and his work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.
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