MLB spring training wrapped up Tuesday, with the Toronto Blue Jays concluding the warmup campaign with an impressive 18-10 record, the best in Florida’s Grapefruit League.
But with Opening Day here at last, it’s time to see if the good vibes will translate into regular season success. So OntarioBets.com wanted to see how the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular-season performance has compared to their spring training results in recent years, and what that might tell us about Ontario sports betting trends and the team’s prospects in 2025.
2025 Spring Training W-L% | 2022-24 Avg. Difference | 2025 Regular Season Projection |
.643 | +.003 | .646 |
By consulting Baseball-Reference.com, we calculated the average difference between the Jays’ win-lose percentage in spring training and the regular season over the past three years (2022-24). We then applied the average difference to create a projection for the 2025 regular season – do these trends indicate that Toronto Blue Jays World Series odds might be worth a flyer this year?
Between the arrival of future Hall of Fame pitcher Max Scherzer and the resurgent play of Bo Bichette, it has been a pleasant six-week stay for the Jays in Dunedin, Florida. Team president and CEO Mark Shapiro even expressed optimism recently that all-star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will sign a deal soon, likely keeping him in Toronto for years to come.
Blue Jays fans and the team’s backers at Ontario sportsbook apps should be delighted by the results of our experiment of comparing spring training against regular-season results. On average over the past three years, Toronto has improved its winning percentage by .003 points in the regular season compared to spring training.
If the trend continues this season, and Toronto manages to beat its spring training W-L% by .003 again, it will be a historic year for Canada’s baseball club. A .646 winning percentage would translate into the greatest regular season in franchise history – technically it would be either a .642 percentage (for a 104-58 record) or .648 (if Toronto finishes 105-57). Either way it would put the team over 100 wins for the first time ever and a spot in the postseason for MLB betting would beckon.
All of that said, Ontario sportsbooks have a different view on the team’s 2025 outlook. According to FanDuel, the over/under on total regular season wins for the Blue Jays is 79.5, which would be just below .500 this year. Meanwhile, odds to surpass 100 wins are +2200, suggesting an implied probability of just 4.35%.
And despite the Jays’ strong spring training performance, there are good reasons to throw cold water on the team’s 2025 prospects. Injuries to pitchers Erik Swanson, Zach Pop, and Ryan Burr – plus reported thumb soreness from the 40-year-old Scherzer – casts serious doubts on the Jays’ bullpen depth.
Ahead of Opening Day, the Toronto Blue Jays currently sit at +6600 with BetMGM Ontario Sportsbook to win the World Series.
However, those odds could shift quickly if the Blue Jays get off to a hot start, and they have an excellent chance to do so, starting the season with seven straight home games. First up, they face division rival Baltimore Orioles in a four-game series that begins Friday, followed by a three-game affair against the Washington Nationals.
USA Today photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck
Author
Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for OntarioBets.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.
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