Given their division and the offense's slow start to the season, the Toronto Blue Jays playoff odds are depleting. The American League East might be the toughest division in Major League Baseball, with the likes of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. But with young talent, savvy vets, and nearly 100 games still to play, the Blue Jays playoff odds aren't done yet.
Let's take a closer look at the team's chances for not just a postseason berth, but a shot at their first World Series title since Joe Carter walked off the Fall Classic in 1993.
The Blue Jays odds to make the playoffs are currently at .1%, with some variation between Ontario sportsbooks. At 13 games back in the division, they're a long shot +13000 to win the AL East, behind the New York Yankees & Baltimore Orioles. Toronto checks in with roughly +3500 odds to win the American League and +9000 to win the World Series (again, with some movement up or down depending on which sportsbook you're using).
As of June 10, 2024, here are the Jays' postseason odds according to Draftkings sportsbook:
So what are some of the reasons these numbers are where they are? Read on...
There were ups and downs, but the Blue Jays had a successful regular season in 2023. The team may have finished third in the AL East, but the name of the game is getting into the postseason, and Toronto was able to grab a spot in the Wild Card Round. Though they were closely contested, the Blue Jays lost the first two games of the series, getting swept out of the postseason in disappointing fashion.
In terms of pitching, they weathered a brutal season from (and the eventual demotion of) Alek Manoah, saw big bouncebacks from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi and got stellar campaigns from Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. led the way offensively, and the team controls their contracts for the next few years, which leads us to...
To compete with the likes of New York and Tampa Bay in the AL East, the Jays need their primetime offensive players to keep building on their regular season success. Besides Bichette and Guerrero, the team could really use strong showings from George Springer and maybe even the newly acquired, Toronto-born Joey Votto. The pitching staff is formidable, but the team will need to miss a few more bats (get more strikeouts) and avoid dropoffs like they went through with Manoah, or Berrios and Kikuchi in the past.
In terms of postseason play, the Jays will be hoping to get similar value out of their pitching staff in October, but coupled with smarter, better play from the offense. When the Minnesota Twins were able to catch Guerrero on a pickoff play, they really took control of the series right up until the final out. Chalk it up to smart play from the Twins if you'd like, but winning baseball means absolute focus and keeping your head in the game. Look for veteran additions like Votto and Justin Turner to show the team what it takes to get wins down the stretch of the division or wild card race and into playoff baseball.
We touched on this in the section above, but the team will be leaning heavily on both their rising stars and veteran additions. It's a formula the Houston Astros have used to dominate the AL West for years, and teams like the Seattle Mariners are trying to emulate. Bichette and Guerrero are still under team control, and if they can pair with established guys like Joey Votto, George Springer and Justin Turner, the offense will keep them in most games.
In terms of the hurlers, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt lead the staff, with solid vets like Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios rounding out the middle of the rotation. Jordan Romano is slated to close out games, with Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson serving as the main right and lefty options, respectively.
Understandably, most of the attention in the AL East is centered around the revitalized Yankees and the defending champ Orioles. And Tampa Bay was in the World Series just a couple of years ago, too. That said, the Toronto Blue Jays are in a great situation as supremely talented, but a bit under the radar, nonetheless.
The team has shown they can win games consistently, so most experts agree it's time to bring their A-game to the postseason. The consensus seems to be that the Jays could use another power bat (no batter hit 30 home runs last year) and a shutdown arm out of the bullpen to put themselves in the best position to compete for a championship. (If that happens in the spring or at the trade deadline, look for the Blue Jays playoff odds to shorten accordingly.)
While some talking heads believe the team can't win when the pressure is on, many columnists and baseball writers think everything could come together for the Jays this year, much like it did for the Texas Rangers in 2023.
After winning historic back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, the Blue Jays would endure a 22-year playoff drought, ending in 2016. Since a deep run in that year's postseason, it's been a case of one-and-done, with the team getting swept in the Wild Card round in 2020, 2022 and 2023.
You can't play the games on paper, but Toronto fans are rightfully excited about the team's chances this year. The playoffs can be highly unpredictable, and while we won't write off the three straight sweeps mentioned above, the fact the team has been playing Wild Card week three of the last four years is no small feat. With some low-risk, high-reward offseason moves and a young core that seems to keep improving, the sky is the limit for these Jays. If they can gather momentum through the middle of the season and make some moves at the trade deadline, look for their playoff odds to get even shorter. And keep an eye on their AL and World Series odds too...if this team is firing on all cylinders, they'll be a tough out in October.
RELATED: Keep up to date with Ontario betting apps
Author
Tom Ober is a professional writer living in New Hampshire. An avid Boston sports fan, he's rooted with his heart (and wallet) for the local teams for many years. When he's not stationed in front of a game on the TV, he's probably playing Gin Rummy or a video game that's roughly 30-40 years old.
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