Nothing exemplifies the up-and-down 2023 NFL season that the Buffalo Bills are having more than their playoff odds, released Wednesday morning by BetMGM Ontario Sportsbook. According to the sportsbook, the Bills are 1.50 to make the playoffs, 2.60 to miss the playoffs. Last week those odds were 1.22 and 4.50 respectively. That was before last weekend’s tepid 29-25 loss to the 2-5 New England Patriots.
The “make” side of that prop bet is generating 75% of tickets, 78% of handle. But that’s still a significant number of bettors banking the other way. The Bills are 4-3 (second in the AFC East) going into Thursday night’s matchup (8:15 Eastern) with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills had three losses all of last season.
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
The injury news for the team’s fans and Ontario sports betting backers didn’t get any better this week. Key lineup cogs Matt Milano (Pro Bowl linebacker), Tre’Davious White (Pro Bowl cornerback) and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones are gone for the season. And tight end Dawson Knox is about to undergo surgery on his wrist.
Thursday’s game is pretty close to a must-win for Buffalo. At Proline, the moneyline is Bills 1.25, Bucs 4.00 as of Wednesday afternoon. The spread is Bills -8.5 (1.87), Bucs +8.5 (1.97); and the over/under is 42.5 points (O: 1.91, U: 1.91).
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is getting a lot of love on the player prop end, which is not a surprise with the Knox injury. Kincaid Over 37.5 receiving yards (1.80) is one of the most bet props at the BetMGM Ontario sportsbook app.
Best Bills-Buccaneers Prop Bets
Also on that list of popular props: Bucs running back Rachaad White under 48.5 rushing yards (1.91); Bills quarterback Josh Allen over to throw an interception (2.00); Allen over 1.5 touchdown passes (1.67), Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs over 87.5 receiving yards (1.87).
Most bet first touchdown: Bills RBs Latavius Murray and James Cook; Diggs and Kincaid, plus Bucs WR Mike Evans. Most bet anytime touchdown: Kincaid, Diggs, Evans, Allen and Bills WR Khalil Shakir.
At FanDuel Ontario Sportsbook, in the anytime touchdown scorer market, Diggs (2.00) is getting 35% of bets and 43% of stakes; Allen (3.20) getting 13% of bets and 11% of stakes, Evans (2.95) getting 12% of bets and 11% of stakes, and Bills WR Gabriel Davis (3.20) getting 8% of bets and 10% of stakes.
The Kincaid receiving yards over/under (39.5) has also been generating lot of action at FanDuel: Over (1.88) is getting 87% of bets and 92% of stakes. And the Allen passing TDs line: over/under 1.5, the O (1.63) getting 87% of bets and 92% of stakes. Diggs (6.50) is getting 16% of bets and 17% of stakes for first touchdown scorer.
Kincaid is also the story with Proline. He’s the most popular pick in the first TD scorer market. Kincaid is also the most popular prop in the anytime TD scorer market. The second most popular is Shakir, and third is Diggs.
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