What NFL Draft Pick Do Teams Get A Year After 3-8 Start?

By Jim Tomlin

The NFL’s longest current postseason drought seems more and more certain to extend into another season. That’s because the New York Jets playoff chances have disintegrated. CBS Sports now gives the Jets (3-8) less than a 1% chance to make the postseason.

The relative promise of a 2-1 start faded badly for Gang Green with a five-game losing streak. The Jets rebounded to top Houston 21-13 on Oct. 31, but New York has lost two in a row since then, including Sunday's 28-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

So we have decided to look ahead at the 2025 NFL Draft, specifically wondering where the Jets might select in the first round. OntarioBets.com, your home for Ontario sports betting, used The Football Database to see where NFL teams have drafted the year after starting 3-8 since the 2019 NFL season. We only calculated the teams’ first selection positions, finding the average and median first pick positions for the draft the year following their 3-8 start.

 
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What Draft Position Do NFL Teams Get Following A 3-8 start?

Outcome

Draft Position

Average

16

Median

11

We decided to turn toward 2025 because any team that has a 3-8 start has pretty dim playoff prospects. In the past five seasons, of the 12 teams that have started 3-8, none made the playoffs.

The Jets fired coach Robert Saleh five games into the season, but the team is still left with 40-year-old Rodgers battling a lack of mobility and a defense, though good on paper, that’s often unable to get crucial stops at important times. Our New York Jets betting guide has insights that you can use as the team tries to salvage something out of another lost season.

Where Jets Could Wind Up Picking In 2025 NFL Draft

For teams starting 3-8 from 2019 to 2023, the average first-round pick position the following year is No. 16 and the median is No. 11. Ontario sportsbook apps will offer odds on 2025 NFL Draft props as next spring gets closer.

The 2021 Jets started 3-8 and wound up drafting fourth overall the following spring. They took All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner in that spot (they also selected wide receiver Garrett Wilson No. 10 overall, but he is not in our calculations because we only account for the top pick for each team).

It seems the only bit of good news for Gang Green is that the Jets cannot lose this weekend. They're on their bye week. The next game is Dec. 1 against the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. The Jets have lost five consecutive meetings against the Seahawks and have not knocked off Seattle since 2004 (the Seahawks are in the NFC, so the teams meet irregularly).

Follow the OntarioBets.com guide to betting on the NFL in Ontario for more information about wagering on the popular league, especially now that CFL season is over in Canada.

USA Today Network photo by Denny Simmons / The Tennessean

 
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Author

Jim Tomlin

Jim Tomlin is an editor and writer specializing in sports, gambling and the intersection of those industries. He has 30+ years of journalism experience and his work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.

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