Can Anyone Catch Alex Ovechkin? Odds On New Goalscoring Record

Steve Bittenbender Profile Picture
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

Alex Ovechkin scored the Washington Capitals’ lone goal in a 4-1 loss Sunday against the New York Islanders. Any other time that would be just an Ontario sports betting footnote about the game, but it was also the record-setting 895th goal in his NHL career.

It took more than 31 years for someone to topple Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s most prolific goal scorer. Many thought Gretzky’s record would stand for even longer. Now, they’re thinking the same about Ovechkin. Even at 39, he could add dozens more to his career total and could approach 1,000 regular-season goals before he hangs up his skates.

Before we prepare for the Stanley Cup playoffs, OntarioBets.com wanted to identify possible successors to Ovechkin who are currently playing in the league. The odds we’ve attached to them are for entertainment purposes only. You will not find them at any Ontario sports betting apps operator.

 
Award-Winning Sportsbook with Competitive Betting Lines
Must be 19+ to participate. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly

Next NHL All-Time Goal Scoring Record Setter

Player (Career Goals)TeamOddsPercent Chance
Auston Matthews (398)Toronto Maple Leafs+90010%
Wyatt Johnston (87)Dallas Stars+50002%
Matvei Michkov (24)Philadelphia Flyers+99001%
Macklin Celebrini (21)San Jose Sharks+99001%
Another Current Active Player +200000.5%
Record Stays Intact For Next 20+ Years -59085.5%

Chances are, if there is anyone capable of topping Ovechkin, then they’re likely bantam hockey players or younger. Only one active veteran player, Toronto Maple Leaf Auston Matthews, has a serious chance of catching Ovi.

Check out Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds as the team awaits its first-round playoff opponent.

Matthews has 398 goals through 623 games and the 27-year-old center is ahead of where Ovechkin was at a similar age. Through the 2013-14 season, when Ovechkin was 28, he had 422 goals in 679 games. That equals 0.621 goals per game, compared to Matthews’ 0.639 pace.

Ovechkin, though, added five more season goal-scoring titles in the ensuing six seasons. Matthews has three titles to his name since the 2020-21 truncated season. That includes last season’s 69 goals, the most since Mario Lemieux scored that many in the 1995-96 season. Goal props are available for NHL betting throughout Ontario.

 
20+ Live Casino Games, Exclusive Party Jackpots, Huge Selection of Slots
Must be 19+ to participate. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly.

Why The Record Will Be Hard To Break

To put it simply, there aren’t many elite goal scorers anymore. The NHL has several playmakers at that level, such as Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon. But, like Ovechkin’s great rival Sidney Crosby, they are just as likely – if not moreso – to set up a teammate for a goal than score themselves. That’s why we excluded them from consideration.

Leon Draisaitl of Edmonton’s next goal will be the 400th of his career. While he leads the league with 52 this season, he’s also nearly two years older than Matthews. Scoring more than 500 goals after turning 30 is a lot to ask of anyone, which is why he was left off.

Draisaitl’s Oilers winning the Stanley Cup this season is currently the most popular hockey bet at 888sport Ontario Sportsbook. Their odds are +850. Matthews’ Maple Leafs winning it all are priced at +1200, which is the second-most-popular bet. 

The next goal-scoring king will also need to be consistent. That likely means becoming a top scorer in their rookie season, which is tough to do. Of all active players, Ovechkin has the highest total for his rookie season, when he scored 52 for the Capitals in 2025-06. Matthews is second on the list at 40, and only nine active players tallied 30 or more in their rookie season.

Why Ovechkin’s Record Could Fall Sooner Than You’d Expect

Ovechkin set the mark despite playing in an era when goals have been tough to score. In his rookie season, NHL teams averaged 3.03 goals per game. That average stayed below 3.0 for the next 15 seasons. Gretzky broke Gordie Howe’s career record during an era when teams averaged well above 3.5 goals scored.

Compared to Ovechkin’s prime seasons, scoring is up in the NHL. So, perhaps that trend will continue for the next 15 years or so. That could give someone like Wyatt Johnston of the Dallas Stars, who has 87 goals through 241 games, a chance. Johnston turns 22 in May when his Stars are likely to still be playing in the playoffs. Party Ontario Sportsbook has Dallas as its favorite to win the Cup with odds of +600.

Higher scoring in general could also make it possible for rookies like Matvei Michkov of the Philadelphia Flyers or Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks to chase down Ovi.

There’s also the possibility of expansion. The NHL has discussed whether to add more teams. If that happens in the next five years, it could benefit Matthews, Johnston, Michkov, Celebrini or whoever becomes the league’s next great scorer.

USA Today photo by Geoff Burke

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters. He shares his expertise on OntarioBets, among other sites.

Cited by leading media organizations, such as: