Since 1947, the Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year Award has been given to the best first-year player in each league. The 2023 season saw Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson win AL ROY, while Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll nabbed NL Rookie of the Year honors on the way to the World Series.
As spring training comes to a close, let's take a look at the latest odds for the 2024 MLB season. We think that the race for Rookie of the Year looks to be as exciting as ever, including top Triple-A prospects, veteran international players and some names you may not know...yet.
Let's start by taking a look at the players most likely to take home the Rookie of the Year Awards in each league according the current odds on Draftkings sportsbook:
It's certainly a top-heavy group vying to win AL rookie honors, with Jackson Holliday checking in as the betting preseason favorite. Rangers teammates Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford aren't far behind, before a steep drop to the rest of the field.
We're not surprised to see Yoshinobu Yamamoto with the best odds to win NL Rookie of the Year honors. In reality, he's a veteran pro, racking up multiple MVPs and awards in Japan. Similarly, Jung Hoo Lee has received just about every honor a player can in Korean baseball. Behind those two international stars is a plethora of Cubbies youngsters, highlighting the success of the franchise's farm system.
Both leagues have clear favorites, but that's not the end of the story. Vying for AL Rookie of the Year honors, longshots like Everson Pereira or Heston Kjerstad could get a lift from being on solid teams with good protection in the lineup. In the race for NL Rookie of the Year, any of Chicago's prospects could emerge as the best of the bunch, and flamethrower Paul Skenes has the potential to be one of the best starting pitchers in MLB.
Obviously, there are a lot of factors that sportsbooks use to come up with the odds for the Rookie of the Year Awards. For international players, their track record in foreign leagues is paramount, while rookies from the minors or even college will be evaluated on that body of work.
The talent around Rookie of the Year candidates is critical, both in terms of protection in the lineup and offensive support for starting pitchers. A given team's track record for developing successful young players is also taken into account.
To qualify as a rookie, players must have fewer than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster of any Major League team. Prior experience in other professional leagues does not disqualify a player from winning Rookie of the Year.
The predictions for Rookie of the Year winners break down interestingly between the two leagues. For American League Rookie of the Year, the odds-on favorites followed a fairly traditional path through the minor leagues. Holliday, Carter and guys like Wyatt Langford, Junior Caminero and Nolan Schanuel have all moved through the farm system and are now poised to break out.
The NL ROY race has a decidedly international feel. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee absolutely dominated the leagues in their home countries, against other top-level competition. Still, if they fail to adjust to playing in MLB, there are a number of up-and-comers on the Cubs ready to assert themselves as the top NL rookie.
As Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson showed, rookies can have a huge impact on the overall success of their teams. Nearly all of the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year in 2024 join quality, established teams looking to build on promising seasons. Look for the players who help their teams the most in the standings to get a lift in terms of ROY odds.
In the eyes of this writer, seeing how the international players adjust to the rigors of the MLB schedule will be very interesting to watch. And seeing how the rookies on the Orioles and Cubs mesh with other young players on their teams will be critical to both team and individual success.
Additionally, injuries, trades and other trends that develop during the course of the season will certainly have an impact on the battle for the MLB Rookie of the Year Awards. The odds for specific players will sometimes change on a weekly (if not daily) basis.
A look at previous NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year winners shows that the awards can certainly serve as a springboard to successful, All-Star careers.
Recent winners on the offensive side of the ball include Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Jonathan India, Randy Arozarena and Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Pitchers Jacob de Grom, Devin Williams and Michael Fullmer have all had successful careers, highlighted by stellar seasons, too.
In terms of winners from international leagues, Ichiro Suzuki and Hideo Nomo both took home the hardware after they made the transition from Japan's NPB to Major League Baseball.
As of spring training, the odds-on favorite is Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's been an ace pitcher in Japan for several seasons, and dominated the competition at the World Baseball Classic, too. That's by no means a guarantee, however. Jung Hoo Lee and others have a very real chance to win the award.
The trio of favorites right now is Jackson Holliday of the Orioles and Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford of the Rangers. You'll notice that all three are joining playoff contenders, giving them a real shot to impact the pennant race.
Just like the MVP Awards, the Baseball Writers' Association of America votes on what player should win the Rookie of the Year in each league.
Author
Tom Ober is a professional writer living in New Hampshire. An avid Boston sports fan, he's rooted with his heart (and wallet) for the local teams for many years. When he's not stationed in front of a game on the TV, he's probably playing Gin Rummy or a video game that's roughly 30-40 years old.
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